Program > Papers by author > Albertini Julien

Taking off into the Wind: Unemployment Risk and State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers
Aurélien Eyquem  1, *@  , Julien Albertini  2@  , Stéphane Auray  3, 4@  , Hafedh Bouakez  5@  
1 : University of Lyon II and GATE
University of Lyon II
2 : Albertini  -  Website
GAINS
Université du Maine - Avenue Olivier Messiaen - 72085 Le Mans cedex 9 -  France
3 : Ecole nationale de la statistique et de l'analyse de l'information  (ENSAI)
Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale
Rue Blaise Pascal, 35172 Bruz -  France
4 : Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique  (CREST)  -  Website
ENSAI
Rue Blaise Pascal -  France
5 : HEC Montréal
* : Corresponding author

We propose a model with involuntary unemployment, incomplete markets, and nominal rigidity, in which the effects of government spending are state-dependent. An increase in government purchases raises aggregate demand, tightens the labor market and reduces unemployment. This in turn lowers unemployment risk and thus precautionary saving, leading to a larger response of
private consumption than in a model with perfect insurance. The output multiplier is further amplified through a composition effect, as the fraction of high-consumption households in total population increases in response to the spending shock. These features, along with the matching frictions in the labor market, generate signicantly larger multipliers in recessions than in expansions. As the pool of job seekers is larger during downturns than during expansions, the concavity of the job-finding probability with respect to market tightness implies that an increase in government spending reduces unemployment risk by more in the former case than in the latter, giving rise to countercyclical multipliers.


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