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Week Thu. 26 Fri. 27 List

	Thu. 26	Fri. 27
08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00	Registration and welcoming coffee 8:30 - 9:00 (30min) Registration and welcoming coffee Forewords 9:00 - 9:15 (15min) Forewords A1 - Labor market institutions A2 - Fiscal policy A3 - Inequality and redistribution A4 - Foreign exchange rate A5 - Monetary policy 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) A1 - Labor market institutions Thepthida Sopraseuth › The Life-cycle Profile of Worker Flows in Europe - Linas Tarasonis, Vilnius University [Vilnius] 09:15-09:45 (30min) › A Joint Theory of Polarization and Deunionization - Tobias Föll, University of Cologne 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Public and Private Employment in a Model with Underemployment - Thepthida Sopraseuth, Thema Université de Cergy Pontoise 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) A2 - Fiscal policy Anastasios Karantounias › Should monetary policy care about redistribution? Should fiscal policy care about inflation? Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous agents - XAVIER RAGOT, Sciences Po 09:15-09:45 (30min) › The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty - Anna Belianska, Aix-Marseille University 09:45-10:15 (30min) › A general theory of tax-smoothing - Anastasios Karantounias, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) A3 - Inequality and redistribution Ctirad Slavik › Helicopter Drops of Money under Secular Stagnation - Jean-Baptiste Michau, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Political Activism and the Provision of Dynamic Incentives: The Guardians of the Pie in the Battle for Redistribution - Antoine Camous, University of Mannheim 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Finance and Inequality: A Tale of Two Tails - Ctirad Slavik, CERGE-EI 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) A4 - Foreign exchange rate Evgenia Passari › Towards a new monetary theory of exchange rate determination - Michael Kumhof, Bank of England 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Shocks and Exchange Rates in Small Open Economies - Vito Cormun, Boston College 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices - Evgenia Passari, Université Paris-Dauphine 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) A5 - Monetary policy Gee Hee Hong › Monetary Non-neutralities when Credit Constraints Bite - Ivan Jaccard, European Central Bank, DG-Research 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Long-term business relationships, bargaining and monetary policy - Tommaso Trani, Universidad de Navarra [Pamplona] 09:45-10:15 (30min) › The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments - Gee Hee Hong, IMF 10:15-10:45 (30min) Coffee break 10:45 - 11:15 (30min) Coffee break B1 - Macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks B2 - Consumption behavior B3 - Expectations and heterogeneity B4 - Firm dynamics B5 - Financial frictions and fluctuations 11:15 - 13:15 (2h) B1 - Macroeconomic effects of fiscal shocks Laurent Ferrara › Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life-Cycle - Laure Simon, European University Institute 11:15-11:45 (30min) › Are Fiscal Multipliers Estimated with Proxy SVARs Robust? - Giovanni Caggiano, Monash University 11:45-12:15 (30min) › Sovereign Default and Imperfect Tax Enforcement - Francesco Pappada, Paris School of Economics 12:15-12:45 (30min) › Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation - Daniele Siena, Banque de France 12:45-13:15 (30min) 11:15 - 13:15 (2h) B2 - Consumption behavior Florian Exler › House Price Expectations and Housing Choice - Jochen Mankart, Deutsche Bundesbank 11:15-11:45 (30min) › A Model of Expenditure Shocks - Eric Young, University of Virginia, Zhejiang University, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 11:45-12:15 (30min) › Confidence, Fundamentals, and Consumption - Donghoon Yoo, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), Osaka University 12:15-12:45 (30min) › Consumer Credit with Over-Optimistic Borrowers - Florian Exler, University of Vienna [Vienna] 12:45-13:15 (30min) 11:15 - 13:15 (2h) B3 - Expectations and heterogeneity Erwan Gautier › A Quantitative Analysis of Distortions in Managerial Forecasts - Tiziano Ropele, Bank of Italy 11:15-11:45 (30min) › Will Artfificial Intelligence Replace Computational Economists Any Time Soon? - Pablo Winant, Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris, Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique (CREST) 11:45-12:15 (30min) › The Factor Structure of Disagreement - Fabian Winkler, Federal Reserve Board 12:15-12:45 (30min) › Inflation Expectations and Consumption Decisions - Erwan Gautier, Banque de France, Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique 12:45-13:15 (30min) 11:15 - 13:15 (2h) B4 - Firm dynamics Stefano Fasani › The Underlying Mechanisms of Entry and Exit in the Small Business Sector - Sumudu Kankanamge, Toulouse School of Economics 11:15-11:45 (30min) › Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits - Anthony Savagar, University of Kent 11:45-12:15 (30min) › Bottom-up Markup Fluctuations - Basile GRASSI, Bocconi University 12:15-12:45 (30min) › Firms Dynamics and Policy Uncertainty Shocks - Stefano Fasani, Queen Mary University of London 12:45-13:15 (30min) 11:15 - 13:15 (2h) B5 - Financial frictions and fluctuations David Gauthier › Costly Default and Asymmetric Real Business Cycles - Pablo Garcia, Banque centrale du Luxembourg 11:15-11:45 (30min) › Sovereign Risk, Financial Fragility and Debt Maturity - Dallal Bendjellal, Aix-Marseille University, AMSE 11:45-12:15 (30min) › Bubble-Driven Business Cycles - Benjamin Larin, University of St.Gallen 12:15-12:45 (30min) › Financial Shocks and the Debt Structure - David Gauthier, Paris School of Economics 12:45-13:15 (30min) Lunch 13:15 - 14:30 (1h15) Lunch C1 - Heterogeneity in macroeconomics C2 - Finance and international macroeconomics C3 - Fiscal and monetary policies C4 - Fiscal multiplier C5 - Fluctuations 14:30 - 16:30 (2h) C1 - Heterogeneity in macroeconomics Lorenza Rossi › Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re)Distribution - Cristiano Cantore, Bank of England, University of Surrey 14:30-15:00 (30min) › Automation, Growth and Factor Shares - Joseba Martinez, London Business School 15:00-15:30 (30min) › Capital Intensity and the Labor Share of Income: New Theoretical and Empirical Insights - Lorenza Rossi, University of Pavia 15:30-16:00 (30min) 14:30 - 16:30 (2h) C2 - Finance and international macroeconomics Kenza Benhima › Masking the truth or softening the blow? U.S. banking deregulation and sectoral reallocation after the China trade shock - Ruslanova Lilia, Department of Economics, University of Zurich 14:30-15:00 (30min) › Financial spillovers and global risk in an estimated structural three-region model - Massimo Giovannini, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] 15:00-15:30 (30min) › One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles - PUY Damien, "Research Department International Monetary Fund (IMF)" 15:30-16:00 (30min) › News, sentiments, and capital flows - Kenza Benhima, University of Lausanne (HEC - Lausanne) 16:00-16:30 (30min) 14:30 - 16:30 (2h) C3 - Fiscal and monetary policies Thomas Grjebine › Monetary independence and rollover crises - Jorge Mondragon, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne 14:30-15:00 (30min) › (Dis)Solving the ZLB equilibrium through Income Policy - Jacopo Bonchi, Sapienza - University of Rome - Guido Ascari, University of Oxford 15:00-15:30 (30min) › Public Liquidity Demand and Central Bank Independence - Jean Barthelémy, Banque de France 15:30-16:00 (30min) › The Macroeconomic Effects of Lump-Sum Taxes - Thomas Grjebine, Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales 16:00-16:30 (30min) 14:30 - 16:30 (2h) C4 - Fiscal multiplier Aurélien Eyquem › State dependent Fiscal Multipliers with Preferences over Safe Assets - Ansgar Rannenberg, National Bank of Belgium 14:30-15:00 (30min) › Macroeconomic Frameworks - Daniel Murphy, University of Virginia Darden School of Business 15:00-15:30 (30min) › Fiscal Multipliers: a Tale from the Labor Market - Anna Rogantini Picco, European University Institute 15:30-16:00 (30min) › Taking off into the Wind: Unemployment Risk and State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers - Aurélien Eyquem, University of Lyon II and GATE 16:00-16:30 (30min) 14:30 - 16:30 (2h) C5 - Fluctuations Gauthier Vermandel › Is there News in Inventories? - Christoph Gortz, University of Birmingham [Birmingham] 14:30-15:00 (30min) › A Rational Inattention Unemployment Trap - Martin Ellison, University of Oxford [Oxford] 15:00-15:30 (30min) › Firms' Labor Market Power and Aggregate Instability - Nicolas Abad, Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée à la Mondialisation 15:30-16:00 (30min) › Endogenous Trends - Gauthier Vermandel, Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine, Paris Sciences et Lettres Research University, France Stratégie 16:00-16:30 (30min) Coffee break 16:30 - 17:00 (30min) Coffee break Michèle Tertilt (University of Mannheim) Consumer debt and default: A macroeconomic perspective 17:00 - 18:00 (1h) Michèle Tertilt (University of Mannheim) Consumer debt and default: A macroeconomic perspective Keynote speaker #1 https://t2m2020.sciencesconf.org/data/program/CEPR_19044.pdf Gala Dinner 20:00 - 22:30 (2h30) Gala Dinner	D1 - Macroeconomic trade-offs in a monetary union D2 - Financial markets D3 - Firms and heterogeneity D4 - Fiscal policy and inequality D5 - Monetary policy II 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) D1 - Macroeconomic trade-offs in a monetary union Linda Tesar › Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices and Net Exports in a Currency Union - Christian Proebsting, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Optimal Macroprudential and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union - Dmitriy Sergeyev, Bocconi University [Milan, Italy] 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Regional effects of exchange rate fluctuations - Linda Tesar, University of Michigan 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) D2 - Financial markets Russell Cooper › Disastrous defaults - Sarah Mouabbi, Banque de France 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Granular Borrowers - Thibault Libert, Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, ACPR - Banque de France 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Rationalizing Trading Frequency and Returns: Maybe Trading is Good for You - Russell cooper, European University Institute 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) D3 - Firms and heterogeneity Francesco Pappada › Aggregate Dynamics and Microeconomic Heterogeneity: The Role of Vintage Technology - Filippo Scoccianti, Banca d'Italia 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Competition and Inequality - Rajssa Mechelli, University of Oxford [Oxford] 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Exchange rate regime and firm dynamics - Francesco Pappada, Paris School of Economics 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) D4 - Fiscal policy and inequality Daniel Murphy › Wealth Inequality, Homeownership and Optimality of Wealth Taxes - Borri Nicola, LUISS University 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Budget Neutral Reduction in Capital Tax - Océane Piétri, Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence - Daniel Murphy, University of Virginia Darden School of Business 10:15-10:45 (30min) 9:15 - 10:45 (1h30) D5 - Monetary policy II Antoine Lepetit › Central Banks' Behavior in the Aftermath of the Great Recession - Aymeric Ortmans, Université Paris-Saclay (EPEE) 09:15-09:45 (30min) › Pain of Paying in a Business Cycle Model - Baptiste Massenot, Toulouse Business School 09:45-10:15 (30min) › Forward guidance with life-cycle motives - Antoine Lepetit, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 10:15-10:45 (30min) Coffee break 10:45 - 11:15 (30min) Coffee break Oleg Itskhoki (Princeton University) Granular comparative advantage 11:15 - 12:15 (1h) Oleg Itskhoki (Princeton University) Granular comparative advantage Keynote speaker #2 https://t2m2020.sciencesconf.org/data/program/GranularCA_final_1.pdf Lunch Poster session DBnomics 12:15 - 13:45 (1h30) Lunch 12:15 - 13:45 (1h30) Poster session › Capital inertia and the timing of energy transition - Kevin Genna, Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques 12:15-13:45 (1h30) › Existence and Uniqueness of Recursive Equilibria with Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk - Elisabeth Pröhl, University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam], Tinbergen Institute 12:15-13:45 (1h30) › Labour productivity and the wageless recovery - Antonio M. Conti, Bank of Italy 12:15-13:45 (1h30) › Life Before Super Thursday: Disentangling the Information Effect - Marco Pinchetti, ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles and Andrzej Szczepaniak, Ghent University 12:15-13:45 (1h30) › Market Sovereign Default and Haircuts: the Role of Expectations - Ibrahima Diarra, University of Paris-Saclay 12:15-13:45 (1h30) › Public Health Investments and the Direction of Technological Progress: A Theory of Deskilling during the British Industrial Revolution - Tanguy Le Fur, Aix-Marseille School of Economics 12:15-13:45 (1h30) › The role of labor market frictions on mortgage debt dynamics - Jérémy Rastouil, Gretha 12:15-13:45 (1h30) › What are the Sources of Boom-Bust Cycles? - Vito Cormun, Boston College 12:15-13:45 (1h30) 13:00 - 13:45 (45min) DBnomics › DBnomics, the world's economic database - Thomas Brand, Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications 13:00-13:45 (45min) E1 - Expectations and macroeconomics E2 - International macroeconomics E3 - Labor market E4 - Monetary policy in open economy E5 - Policy decisions 13:45 - 15:15 (1h30) E1 - Expectations and macroeconomics Fabrice Collard › Learning from House Prices: Amplification and Business Fluctuations - Gaetano Gaballo, HEC Paris and CEPR 13:45-14:15 (30min) › Perceived wealth and behavioral inattention - Tiziana Assenza, Toulouse School of Economics 14:15-14:45 (30min) › Shocks and Frictions: A Finite Planning Horizon Approach - Julien Matheron, Banque de France 14:45-15:15 (30min) 13:45 - 15:15 (1h30) E2 - International macroeconomics Isabelle Mejean › International Trade and Innovation Dynamics with Endogenous Markups - Pau Roldan, Bank of Spain 13:45-14:15 (30min) › Production Network and International Fiscal Spillovers - Karine Gente, GREQAM - AMSE 14:15-14:45 (30min) › Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations - Mejean Isabelle, CREST-Ecole Polytechnique 14:45-15:15 (30min) 13:45 - 15:15 (1h30) E3 - Labor market Rahul Mukherjee › Inter-generational conflict and the declining labor share - Fabien Petit, Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques 13:45-14:15 (30min) › Inefficiencies in Globalized Economies with Labor Market Frictions - Lise Patureau, University Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University, LEDa 14:15-14:45 (30min) › Trends in Aggregate Employment, Hours Worked per Worker, and the Long-Run Labor Wedge - Rahul Mukherjee, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies 14:45-15:15 (30min) 13:45 - 15:15 (1h30) E4 - Monetary policy in open economy Romanos Priftis › International monetary policy spillovers: the role of commodity prices - Erica Perego, CEPII 13:45-14:15 (30min) › Central Bank Information Effects and International Spillovers - Georg Strasser, European Central Bank 14:15-14:45 (30min) › Optimal quantitative easing in a currency union - Romanos Priftis, Bank of Canada 14:45-15:15 (30min) 13:45 - 15:15 (1h30) E5 - Policy decisions Stéphane Dupraz › Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? - Mark Weder, Aarhus University 13:45-14:15 (30min) › Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union - Pei Kuang, University of Birmingham 14:15-14:45 (30min) › A Pitfall of Cautiousness in Monetary Policy - Stéphane Dupraz, Banque de France 14:45-15:15 (30min) Coffee break 15:15 - 15:45 (30min) Coffee break F1 - Recent developments on business cycles F2 - Fiscal policy in open economy F3 - Monetary policy and financial frictions F4 - Open economy F5 - Uncertainty and the labor market 15:45 - 17:15 (1h30) F1 - Recent developments on business cycles Alain Venditti › Are the liquidity and collateral roles of asset bubbles different? - Xavier Raurich, University of Barcelona 15:45-16:15 (30min) › A simple theory of deflation - Takashi Kamihigashi, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University 16:15-16:45 (30min) › Optimal growth, bequests and competitive equilibrium cycles in two-sector OLG models - Alain Venditti, AMSE, CNRS-AMU, EDHEC Business School 16:45-17:15 (30min) 15:45 - 17:15 (1h30) F2 - Fiscal policy in open economy Matteo Cacciatore › Fiscal Austerity in Emerging Market Economies - Suchismita Tarafdar, Suchismita Tarafdar 15:45-16:15 (30min) › Fiscal and Currency Unions with Default and Exit - Chima Simpson-Bell, European University Insitute 16:15-16:45 (30min) › Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers - Matteo Cacciatore, HEC Montréal 16:45-17:15 (30min) 15:45 - 17:15 (1h30) F3 - Monetary policy and financial frictions Marien Ferdinandusse › The Bond Lending Channel of Monetary Policy - Alexander Rodnyansky, University of Cambridge 15:45-16:15 (30min) › Monetary policy transmission in France under different types of expectations - Matthieu Lemoine, Banque de France 16:15-16:45 (30min) › Quantitative easing and the price-liquidity trade-off - Marien Ferdinandusse, European Central Bank 16:45-17:15 (30min) 15:45 - 17:15 (1h30) F4 - Open economy Luca Dedola › Sectoral Reallocations, Real Estate Shocks,and Productivity Divergence in Europe - Jérôme Héricourt, LEM CNRS UMR 9221, CEPII 15:45-16:15 (30min) › Exchange rate volatility and cooperation in an incomplete markets' economy - Sara Eugeni, Durham University, Durham University Business School, Department of Economics and Finance 16:15-16:45 (30min) › The Missing Internal Devaluation: Regional Adjustment in the US Great Recession - Luca Dedola, European Central Bank 16:45-17:15 (30min) 15:45 - 17:15 (1h30) F5 - Uncertainty and the labor market Pontus Rendahl › Consumption Dynamics under Time-Varying Unemployment Risk - Harmenberg Karl, Copenhagen Business School [Copenhagen] 15:45-16:15 (30min) › Macro Uncertainty and Unemployment Risk - Joonseok Oh, Freie Universität Berlin 16:15-16:45 (30min) › Unexpected Effects: Uncertainty, Unemployment, and Inflation - Pontus Rendahl, University of Cambridge 16:45-17:15 (30min)

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