Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation
Daniele Siena  1@  , Laurent Ferrara  2, 3@  , Luca Metelli  4@  , Filippo Natoli  5@  
1 : Banque de France  (BdF)  -  Website
Banque de France
31 rue Croix des petits champs 75001 PARIS - France -  France
2 : Banque de France
Banque de France
3 : Skema Business School
Skema Business School, SKEMA Business School
4 : Banca d'Italia
5 : Bank of Italy

The paper re-investigates the effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate, inflation and the trade balance. In contrast with previous puzzling results, we find that an increase in government spending appreciates the real exchange rate, is inflationary, induces a trade balance deficit and decreases consumption. The difference with the existing literature lies in the identification of fiscal shocks: embedding a narrative approach in a proxy-SVAR drives our new results. We then show that the empirical findings are consistent with a standard estimated open economy model.


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