One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles
Puy Damien  1@  , Eric Monnet  2@  
1 : "Research Department International Monetary Fund (IMF)"  (IMF)  -  Website
Postal: 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington DC 20431 -  United States
2 : Paris School of Economics  (PSE)  -  Website
Paris School of Economics - CNRS
48 boulevard Jourdan 75014 Paris -  France

We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real and financial, exist and are generally driven by US shocks. But their impact is modest for most countries. The global financial cycle is also much weaker when looking at credit rather than asset prices. We also challenge the view that syncronization has increased over time. Although this is true for prices (goods and assets), this not true for quantities (output and credit). The world business and credit cycles were as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1972) as during the Globalization period (1984-2006). For most countries, the way their output co-moves with the rest of the world has changed little over the last 70 years. We discuss the reasons behind these new findings and their policy implications for small open economies


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