Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers
Matteo Cacciatore  1@  
1 : HEC Montréal

We present novel insights on the role of international trade following unanticipated government spending and income tax changes in a flexible exchange rate environment. In a simple two-country, two-good model, we show analytically that fiscal multipliers can be larger in economies more open to trade, even when fiscal expansions imply a trade deficit. Cross-country comovement can be positive or negative. Three factors determine how trade linkages affect fiscal multipliers: the relative import share of public and private goods, how the government finances its budget, and the currency invoicing of exports. A Bayesian prior-predictive analysis shows a quantitative international business-cycle model that includes a rich fiscal specification and microfounded trade structure bears the same agnostic predictions. We estimate the model on Canadian and U.S. data and find that trade linkages increase Canadian government spending multipliers but lower income tax multipliers. Cross-country comovement is positive across U.S. fiscal instruments.


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